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Since bucking his own party in 2006 after losing the Democratic senate primary to upstart Ned Lamont, and then running, and winning, as an independent, Lieberman has officially classified himself as an "independent Democrat." He has caucused with the Democrats, giving them a one-vote majority in the Senate, and in exchange was made chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
Lieberman declined to comment for this article, but his Washington office issued a statement: "Senator Lieberman is focused on being the best senator he can for the state of Connecticut, and not on a race that is four years away."
There are many, however, who believe his latest actions place him squarely in the Republican fold.
"I would think that at some point in the near future he will file papers to join the Republican Party, since that's where he seems most comfortable these days," Lamont said this week.
Lieberman has enjoyed an interesting state of grace since his very public defiance - or, depending on whom you ask, "divorce" - of the Democratic Party two years ago, when he won his fourth senatorial term as the nominee of a party of his own creation, Connecticut for Lieberman.
In the past two years, Lieberman has ostensibly functioned as the Senate's "51st Democrat," tolerated by the party despite opposing views on several hot-button topics such as his strong support for the war in Iraq and other foreign policy and national security issues.
But that may come to an end in the aftermath of Tuesday's election. Of the 100 U.S. Senate seats, 35 are up for grabs Nov. 4, with Democratic candidates tracking strongly in at least a dozen races, according to the Associated Press. If Democrats expand their razor-thin majority in the Senate, Lieberman's value to the party may be diminished.
If his numerous public appearances in support of McCain on the campaign trail, as well as his speech at the Republican national convention, haven't been infuriating enough to Democrats, Lieberman's sharp attacks on Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, whom he has called "naïve" and "unprepared," may have further strained relations.
"Certainly his actions are contrary to the feelings of the Democrats, but it's a federal issue right now," said state House Majority Leader Christopher G. Donovan, D-Meriden.
Donovan added that most Democrats he knows are "very disappointed" with Lieberman's actions.
Sen. Christopher J. Dodd's office did not return calls for comment, while U.S. Rep John B. Larson, D-1st, who has been openly critical of Lieberman's recent actions, responded by e-mail:
"Connecticut is a small state and I have worked very closely and cooperatively with Sen. Lieberman over the years. While I am disappointed in some of his recent decisions, ultimately his fate will be determined by his colleagues in the Senate and the voters of Connecticut."
Many have speculated that, once the fallout from the election settles, the Democratic Party may publically censure Lieberman, strip him of his chairmanships, or even go so far as to kick him out of the party altogether.
Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, said it was too soon to say how the party might respond.
"We'll have to wait and see," Manley said Tuesday. "As of right now, Sen. Reid and the rest of the caucus are not ready to make those kinds of decisions."
If McCain wins the general election, however, Lieberman's fortunes presumably would change for the better. He was on a short list of vice presidential candidates before the selection of Sarah Palin and there's speculation that McCain would reward Lieberman with a cabinet post, possibly Secretary of State.
But there's a third scenario that could develop.
If the Democrats were to capture nine senatorial seats, Lieberman would again find himself thrust back into the critical position of swing vote, this time as the 60th vote needed to defeat a Republican filibuster.
"The only hope the Republicans have of preventing Obama's health care reform from passing or challenging one of his Supreme Court appointments is a filibuster," said Ken Dautrich, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut.
"When you look at the math there's a very good chance we could end up with 59 Democratic senators. Lieberman would then play a very, very important role. The only hope he has for meaningful political life over the next two years is if his vote is needed for filibuster. That's his lifeline."
Still, Connecticut residents may have had it with the senator. A recent UConn poll found that only 41 percent of those surveyed approved of Lieberman's performance, while 53 percent disapproved.
Dautrich believes Lieberman, who faces re-election in 2012, has not damaged his political career beyond repair no matter the outcome of Tuesday's election.
"I don't think he's crossed the point of no return,"
Dautrich said. "Four years is an eternity in politics."
One thing's for certain - if Lieberman were to run again in 2012, he almost certainly will not do so as a Connecticut for Lieberman candidate.
Lieberman never officially joined the party he created for the 2006 senatorial race, and it has since been taken over by a group strongly opposed to the senator's political agenda. The party officially endorsed Obama for president this year.
"He never joined his own party. He's still a registered Democrat," said Connecticut for Lieberman Chairman John Mertens, a Trinity College professor running for a seat in the state House of Representatives. "If he registered for the party and he came to our statewide party caucus and he pitched it to us and we nominated him, we could endorse him and he could run for the party. But that's not going to happen."
And then there's Lamont. Many believe the founder and chairman of Greenwich-based Lamont Digital Systems, still stinging from his 2006 defeat, will challenge Lieberman again for the Democratic nomination in four years.
Lamont declined to say whether he would.
"Twenty-twelve is a long way away," he said. "I think I'm probably the last person who would know what Sen. Lieberman is going to do."
dmoran@record-journal.com
(203) 317-2224
