Today, New York City tops the nationwide list of cities most likely to suffer a hurricane disaster, experts say.
Historically, September has been the worst time for storm hazards — a scientific assertion made brutally clear when the 1938 Long Island Express, a Category 4 hurricane, killed hundreds of people and caused untold amounts of property damage throughout the New York region. That storm is considered the worst in recent history.
Now, experts say New York is due for another “Big One” in the next two decades. And there’s a slightly stronger than normal chance that it will land locally this year.
“We are supposed to have an especially active season,” Coch warns, but adds that there’s simply no way to know for certain whether a hurricane will ever hit the borough. “I don’t have a crystal ball. ... All I can talk about is what has happened in past hurricanes — and it’s not pretty.
“I don’t mean to scare people,” the professor added. “But it’s important for them to know what they’re in for, and that there’s a plan” for evacuating.
So, what is in the cards for Queens and the city, if and when a hurricane strikes?
The city’s Office of Emergency Management has spent hours trying to answer that question in hopes of formulating an evacuation plan.
Under their doomsday scenario, a Category 3 storm would likely begin brewing in late August off the west coast of Africa. There, a cluster of high-pressure weather systems converge and arrange into a dark swirling mass that starts to make its way across the Atlantic along a current of warm tropical water. Perhaps the hurricane roars across the Caribbean, much the way one did late last month. Eventually, it begins churning north.
But it is unclear whether the storm will end up hitting New York on its northbound route. The hurricane has already charted a predictable course along the so-called “Atlantic conveyor belt,” but once it goes farther north than Florida and the Carolinas, it begins moving erratically and picks up speed — making it increasingly difficult to predict exactly where it will land.
“When you’re viewing it from Cape Hatteras (in North Carolina),” Coch says, “you can sit back, sip a gin and tonic and watch the storm move slowly over the ocean.” But by the time it appears to be on a path toward New York, “you’ve got about six hours to get out ... Otherwise, forget it: You’re gone.”
As the Category 3 hurricane churns its way up the coast, the mayor and OEM officials are meeting to discuss how they will handle a mammoth evacuation. City officials estimate that anywhere from 2.5 million to 3.4 million people will need to leave their homes in a short amount of time, if the storm starts barreling toward the city.
In Queens, that means clearing thousands of residents from the Rockaways, Howard Beach and other shoreline communities that will be in the direct path of hurricane-force winds and towering tidal surges.
But OEM’s evacuation plan, deemed inadequate in a report conducted by the New York State Assembly last year, will be put to the test. City officials must figure out how to stretch their resources –– 881 public shelters for an estimated 1.4 million evacuees who say they would need public shelter during a major hurricane, according to an Army Corps of Engineers study.
That is, of course, if New Yorkers actually decide to leave. The cumbersome two-tier system of evacuation will deter many residents from evacuating, the state report found. Some 40 percent of people will decide not to leave when they learn they must first report to a reception center before they are brought to a shelter.
Others will stay at their homes, because they don’t fully appreciate the threat, Coch worries. “In this situation, one of the most dangerous things in New York are the New Yorkers and their New Yorker mentality,” he said. “They don’t want to be told to evacuate, because so many people think a hurricane could never hit here. Just couldn’t happen.
“Of course, by the time it does hit, it’ll be too late for them.”
For residents seeking a reception center, the mere task of arriving at the designated centers will be a challenge, since many locations are not accessible by public transportation. And as severe thunderstorms buffet the city, the transit system seems closer than ever to failing amid the inclement weather and sudden influx of fleeing riders.
Residents who do make it to the centers will be faced with yet another obstacle: transportation from the center to a shelter.
The city has dedicated roughly 6,000 school buses to the evacuation effort, though it’s unclear who will drive them, and the simple logistics of appointing drivers to evacuation vehicles hasn’t been worked out. Under the city’s evacuation plan, regular school bus drivers have been designated for the task, although no one has notified them of their responsibilities, and no one knows which city employees could fill their drivers’ seats if and when they don’t show up.
The daunting task of evacuation is about to get worse when officials consider the city’s disabled population. The state report concludes that “there is no realistic probability of a successful evacuation of special populations” — a prediction that evokes images of elderly New Orleans residents stranded in sweltering nursing homes with no food or water.
Can it happen in New York?
There are 893,867 mobile-disabled people in the city, and many of them will need to be evacuated, though it’s unclear how. At best, the Metropolitan Transit Authority can only transport about 38,400 people in a 24-hour-period, so hospitals and nursing homes will have to rely on their own vehicles and staff. Some nursing homes do not have evacuation plans, while others have plans that call for patients to be transported 50 miles away, a virtually impossible task during such a colossal migration of people.
While some residents seek evacuation centers, thousands more will opt to hit the road in their own vehicles — a decision that defeats the city’s plan to relocate people in staggered waves to avoid congestion and chaos. Critics say the city’s plan underestimates the amount of traffic that will clog the borough’s evacuation routes.
Queens residents aren’t the only ones fleeing. Residents from the tri-state area will also be racing to beat the monster storm that is racing up the coast. But because city officials have not firmed up a plan with neighboring states or metropolitan cities, people braving the roads may be trapped in their cars for hours.
Meanwhile, the sands of time are sliding through the fingers of city officials as they scramble to coordinate agencies and delegate responsibilities.
But at some point, it becomes too late.
Next week’s Queens Chronicle will detail the extensive damage and loss of life that would be suffered in the borough if a major hurricane were to land in New York City.
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